AVO-REIN TEREPING ⟩ We have a problem, let’s create a ministry

But there are many other problems, a number of them. The teachers' strike showed the problems of the education system. There is a shortage of labor, and with it, the pension system tends to suffer, because there are fewer and fewer taxpayers. However, it seems that the foundations of the pension system stand on sand, because if the system needs constant tinkering and additional supports in order not to collapse (Heido Vitsur, PM, February 8), the reasons must lie somewhere deeper.

The root cause of these aforementioned problems lies in demographic changes, which are best described by the population pyramid, which is likely familiar to many. In reality, it has become more like a skinny mushroom-shaped formation. Next to it, for comparison, is the population pyramid of Israel, which stands firmly in balance.

The shape of the Estonian population pyramid should clearly indicate the cause of the problems. It is the mismatch between the workers-taxpayers coming up from the bottom and the pension-age people at the top of the pyramid. Of course, it is not possible to make the pyramid more beautiful by reducing its upper end. Moreover, as life expectancy increases, the growing number of pensioners puts more and more pressure on the bottom. And balance can only be created by expanding the lower part of the pyramid. The root cause of many problems is low birth rates. This means -- the birth rate must increase.

Society cannot function sustainably if more people are not born who will become taxpayers as adults. An analysis carried out by the Dutch confirmed that it is not possible to boost the aging society with immigration (Martin Ehala, PM, February 8). We are moving in the direction where «the sale of adult diapers is starting to exceed that of baby diapers» (Mihkel Kunnus, PM, April 12, 2023).

Society cannot function sustainably if more people are not born who will become taxpayers as adults.

Declining birth rates in developed economies is a problem that many economic analysts have pointed to. Although the birth rate remains high in countries with a low level of development, it is declining in countries with high technological development. If there are fewer workers, there are also fewer consumers and the economy will inevitably decline. This creates instability.

So -- we have a problem -- too few children are born. And this problem is long-standing.

A reminder from 1988 -- in the next few days it will be 36 years since the joint plenary of creative associations that took place in the current Riigikogu hall on April 1-2, the live broadcast of which on Eesti Raadio was likely heard by most Estonian residents. The title of Lennart Meri's presentation at the plenary was «Do Estonians have hope?» Its main message was our future as a nation. An excerpt from the presentation:

«I see a solution in a systematic population policy, which aims to eliminate the losses of World War II and the shock years that followed, and to bring the number of Estonians to one million by 2015.» At the time of this presentation, there were 940,390 Estonians in Estonia.

But as of the 2021 census, there were 919,711 Estonians in Estonia. And there is no systematic population policy to this day.

What Lennart Meri said in 1988 was likely one of the reasons why the position of population minister was created shortly after Estonia regained its independence. The problem had been noticed and a minister was appointed to deal with it.

It is true that the focus of the ministers who filled this position at the time was foremost on integration problems, but to some extent attention was also paid to demographic processes.

The position of population minister was done away with in 2009. But low birth rate as a problem did not disappear anywhere! The elephant is still in the room, but it's more convenient to not take note of it.

The position of population minister was reestablished during the government of Jüri Ratas in 2019. Riina Solman became minister and right from the beginning the focus was set on investigating the causes of low birth rates and dealing with them. But with the change of government, this office disappeared once again in 2021.

The position of population minister was done away with in 2009. But low birth rate as a problem did not disappear anywhere!

But the problem still remains. The current coalition found a solution -- not by dealing with the matter, but by eliminating the position of population minister and dispersing those who dealt with it! And, of course, talk about the extinction of the nation must stop, says the minister of social protection. That's how one can govern more calmly!

Lennart Meri called for a systematic population policy. This means, among other things, trying to discover the causes of low birth rates and, by changing them, to stabilize the problematic decline in birth rates. In addition, it is necessary to study how things are in other parts of the world. Who is the person or the institution in Estonia that deals with the problem systematically?

It is correct that with the increase in prosperity, the birth rate is on a downward trend everywhere. For several politicians, this has been a kind of justification for sweeping the problem under the carpet. As if it were an inexorable law of nature that could not be countered by any force.

If so, the birth rate would not be so different in different countries. For example, in Israel the total birth rate in 2021 was 3.0 (!!!), in France 1.8, in Iceland 1.82, in Estonia only 1.61, in Germany even lower, altogether 1.58. These are all highly developed countries in every respect. One could ask -- what is behind this difference? How is their population policy different from ours? And maybe there is something for us to take over from it?

Our current government has moved in the opposite direction to supporting the birth rate, according to the comparison of family policy between us and France (as well as Sweden) described by Jüri Kõre in Tartu Postimees on February 27. We are moving increasingly towards an individual-centered society with our laws, away from family-centeredness. While the family is under the protection of the state according to the Constitution, then from the point of view of the Income Tax Act, for example, spouses are separate subjects and the possibility of joint declaration of income has been eliminated. There are other differences as well.

Perhaps it would be worthwhile for the ministry to acquire knowledge from or employ as advisers those who have dealt with the problem purely out of enthusiasm, without state funding? In Estonia, quite a few NGOs have been engaged in researching what interferes with families having as many children as they want. According to surveys by the Institute for the Study of Societal Issues, that number is between 2.2 and 2.4. True, according to the minister of social protection, the ministry intends to allocate money to Tallinn University’s Institute for Population Studies (the amount is unknown) to study and analyze fertility behavior. Why only now? So what is the ministry's current knowledge of the factors affecting birth rates based on? When reading interviews with officials, one can hear mostly that money is not the only factor and that there are other reasons. A beautiful vague story that reveals nothing, no strategy.

But there is a truly astonishing circumstance. Let us compare two problems that require a long-term strategy to deal with.

One -- climate change related to carbon emissions, which has been taken so seriously that a Ministry of Climate has been created and a climate law is about to come out. The premise of all this is the hypothesis that man can indeed intervene in climate processes to the extent of reversing the damage caused by burning fossil fuels (although, according to skeptics, the path chosen for this is no less suicidal).

The second is the demographic crisis, which has also been recognized as a strategic concern in the European Union. Let us compare the human and other resources applied to deal with them. And next to this, for example, let us have a look at the very interesting message that a course will be organized to raise the awareness of officials about gender equality, for the cost of which 100,000 euros have easily been found (admittedly, from another ministry)! Do officials really know so little about equality? I suppose there is no shortage of money then. But the priorities in dealing with the problems are pretty skewed.