SERGEI METLEV ⟩ The great March revolution in Tallinn, Savisaar's legacy is dead

The Center Party, which is hovering at around 10-12 percent while in fifth place in party ratings, cannot blame anyone but itself for what is happening. After all, it was the decision of the majority of the members of this party to support Mihhail Kõlvart, who promised a so-called stronger line, and not Tanel Kiik, who would have continued the balance policy driven by Jüri Ratas.

With little experience in top politics, Kõlvart has fallen victim to the skill and cold calculation of his competitors, as well as his own illusions.

EKRE did not support the removal of Kõlvart

Regarding competitors. While the Social Democrats did squirm, the political redistribution of Tallinn is very beneficial to everyone except the Center Party. Despite the comforts and benefits offered by Kõlvart, which have been thoroughly enjoyed so far, SDE leaders understand the benefit factor. A coalition with parties that are more like-minded is better in the long run than tying oneself to a slowly dissolving party whose reputation forces them to constantly answer unpleasant questions.

This is similar to the strategic breakthrough that Jüri Ratas, Jevgeni Ossinovski and Margus Tsahkna made when they jointly took down the Reform Party government in 2016 and created a much more dynamic environment where even the biggest player can lose power. Many did not like its consequences in the form of the EKREIKE coalition, but it is undeniable that Estonian democracy and civic activity received a strong impulse. Note the irony of history -- all three politicians mentioned are also involved in this change, but only one of them is in the same political party as before.

A new city coalition without the Center Party means greater opportunities for the parties to transform Tallinn, implement their program and do it as equal partners, not as poodles. The capital's ruling parties gain more media visibility, their overall weight in the country increases, and, as one might guess, the number of political positions within their reach also increases. The latter is a logical course of things on the one hand, but a dangerous temptation on the other -- after all, isn’t it easy to repeat the pattern of the old power and grab hold of more resources to improve the election result? Let them be warned against it.

The Center Party has burrowed deep into the city. It has been speculated that a total of around 200 people whose salaries are paid by the city are clearly linked to the Center Party.

The fact that EKRE jumped ship at the last moment and did not support the removal of Kõlvart with their votes, because they did not want to support the new "globalist power" in Tallinn, is simply a continuation of the "everyone is against us and we are against everyone" policy.

If EKRE now falls into opposition together with the Center Party, it will also win in a situation where no party can truly dominate in the city. It would certainly be more useful for EKRE in the context of future coalitions if it could be less ideological and aggressive in the city, because national politics is not the same as local politics, but it does not seem like they want that at the moment.

The Center Party has burrowed deep into the city. It has been speculated that a total of around 200 people whose salaries are paid by the city are clearly linked to the Center Party. Cleaning the stables of Augeias is time-consuming and hard work, but essential. Of course, reality quickly pushes idealism aside -- it is unlikely that hundreds of people will be fired in a hurry, unless they are obviously party members. After all, the city must function, competence must be maintained.

What will become of the propaganda machine?

It will definitely be very interesting to see what the new city leaders will do with the city's propaganda machine (newspapers and portals Pealinn/Stolitsa, Tallinn’s programs on several channels, city district newspapers and press representatives); with the reform of Russian schools into Estonian-language schools, where setbacks are expected; with corruption; with outdated urban planning; with the capital's finance and investment priorities. The field is big and wide and there are plenty of opportunities to get stuck in arguments or lose the mood for action.

Isamaa and the Reform Party have not decided anything in the city for a long time, Estonia 200 has never done so -- so there is a lack of experience, however, the Social Democrats have it and will likely start playing the first fiddle. Together with Taavi Aas, Igor Gräzin and Tõnis Mölder, who are not members of any council group, they would have a slim majority.

The first months are extremely important in establishing the initial image -- this may also determine whether the Center Party succeeds in returning to power from the opposition, for example, by planting the feeling that the city is falling apart in people before the 2025 elections and instilling some kind of false fear in the Russian-speaking electorate (especially Russian citizens and non-citizens) that they will be repressed as the first thing. The power lines of the city council will certainly become even more complex and it is not ruled out that the new government will start to subsequently entice Center Party representatives with all kinds of offers.

Kõlvart’s imagination

The ousted Mihhail Kõlvart hinted in his speech today [Tuesday -- ed.] that he does not believe that the new multi-partner power will be effective. That's definitely an actually soft spot to aim for, as well as a signal of how Kõlvart sees things more generally.

Regarding Kõlvart’s illusions. He has developed them mainly in relation to himself. The chairman of the Center Party as a personality and a politician has a number of strengths that cannot be overlooked: the ability to maintain a rhetorically dignified style in public debate, the ability to stand tall under blows, the ability to concentrate.

However, based on the current observation experience, it can be said that he has been living with the illusion that the power that falls into his hands by combining the positions of mayor and party chairman gives him such leverage and persuasion, such tools that allow him to quickly tame the internal opposition and project his strength to the outside.

It seems that when he ran for party chairman, he believed that he would be able to skilfully push these buttons as a leader with a strong hand and that the image he developed over the course of nearly 15 years, which has been called pro-Russian in the media, would remain in history.

This was the moment when he collided with the complex reality of party democracy, which is a much bigger nut to crack than exercising sole power in a controlled Tallinn or fighting within one party. By now former well-known Center Party members simply mocked his boss status, partners saw a trap in continuing cooperation and society did not forget his past actions. His offers and political line apparently do not convince the other players that this could be more beneficial for them than looking for a new path.

A comeback is unlikely

In the city council today [Tuesday -- ed.], Kõlvart bitterly repeated that political parties with very different goals want to rule the city. He questioned their values and called everyone servants of the Reform Party who are going to turn Tallinn into Toompea. Then he listed all the good things that the Center Party has done in Tallinn -- free public transport, kindergarten places, roads. Finally, like in a crime series, he said that he will remember everything and everyone and then he will see what to do. Of course, the word «betrayal» also sounded.

Hated and loved by many, Savisaar was characterized by a strategic view, personal magnetism and a very sharp political reading skill, which is clearly lacking in the current Center Party.

The fact that democratic power in a proportional election system must be a combination of several party views remains a bit foreign to him -- almost 20 years of sole power has done its job on consciousness, although he said in his speech that a vote of no confidence is part of democracy and there is no tragedy here.

It is difficult to believe that he can make the same comeback as Edgar Savisaar did after the tape scandal. Kõlvart has repeatedly emphasized that the Center Party has emerged from crises in the past as well. Hated and loved by many, Savisaar was characterized by a strategic view, personal magnetism and a very sharp political reading skill, which is clearly lacking in the current Center Party. But we’ll see -- the new city government will in any case be walking on a minefield. Savisaar would definitely have given good political advice, but he is no more, and his legacy is dead.

It seems that everything that has happened in the Center Party since Savisaar was removed from the position of party chairman was one very long process of abatement, accelerated by the war in Ukraine, which forced the Center Party, which is largely held up by its Russian-speaking electorate, to face only unpleasant and destabilizing questions. The fate of the Center Party will ultimately be decided at the 2025 local elections. However, the loss of power in Tallinn is the same as a roof being blown away by a tornado -- with it, most of its interior also flies out of the house.